Atlanta Braves at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Albies homered to right (373 feet).3–6
- 6Olson homered to center (412 feet).2–6
- 5Santander homered to right (409 feet), Bichette scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.1–6
- 5Roden homered to right (397 feet), Straw scored.1–3
- 3Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, Roden scored.1–1
- 1Riley homered to right center (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 3.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +14 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +4 Elo | ATL 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.010th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 5–313th of 30 |
| 1st of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 13–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 8–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 6–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–4 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.