Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos CorreaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Braves- Alex VerdugoBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Verdugo singled to right, Allen scored.3–4
- 6Harris II homered to right (446 feet).3–3
- 6Buxton hit sacrifice fly to center, Lee scored.3–2
- 4Correa homered to right (358 feet).2–2
- 3Olson singled to left, Verdugo scored, Riley to second.1–2
- 1Olson doubled to center, Verdugo scored, Ozuna to third.1–1
- 1Keaschall doubled to left, Buxton scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 68%
- ML MIN +200 / ATL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.2%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -212
- MIN +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | MIN: Justin Topa (no track record yet) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–8 | Road vs home | 4–210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15182nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301488 | Elo rating | 151912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–12 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–12 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–7 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.