Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Trevor LarnachBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin singled to center, White scored and Harris II scored.4–6
- 8Harris II singled to right, Albies scored and Olson scored, White to third.4–4
- 8Albies reached on infield single to first, Ozuna scored, Olson to second.4–2
- 5Kelenic homered to center (418 feet).4–1
- 4Julien hit sacrifice fly to center, Keaschall scored.4–0
- 3Larnach homered to right center (407 feet).3–0
- 2Keaschall singled to right, Jeffers scored.2–0
- 2Jeffers doubled to left, Correa scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML MIN +130 / ATL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- MIN +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.9 – 4.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −23 | MIN: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +33 Elo | ATL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Road vs home | 3–217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15202nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 8–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–6 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.