Minnesota Twins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Buxton homered to center (434 feet).2–6
- 5Ozuna homered to left (394 feet).1–6
- 4Larnach scored on Holmes wild pitch, Jeffers to second, Correa to third.1–5
- 4Larnach scored on Holmes wild pitch, Jeffers to second on wild pitch by Holmes, Correa to third on wild pitch by Holmes.1–5
- 3Baldwin homered to left (368 feet), Harris II scored.0–5
- 2Riley singled to left, Kelenic scored, Verdugo to third.0–3
- 1Olson homered to right center (403 feet), Ozuna scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML MIN +100 / ATL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +43 Elo | ATL 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.723rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–9 | Road vs home | 5–29th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15173rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301487 | Elo rating | 152012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 4–7 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13 | 9–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–8 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.