St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left center (417 feet), Scott II scored.6–7
- 9Scott II doubled to right, Pagés scored.4–7
- 8Murphy homered to left (388 feet), Olson scored and Albies scored.3–7
- 8Harris II hit sacrifice fly to right, White scored.3–4
- 8Olson singled to right, Riley scored, White to third.3–3
- 6Gorman singled to right, Arenado scored, Walker to third.3–2
- 3Riley homered to left (412 feet), Verdugo scored.2–2
- 2Scott II reached on infield single to shortstop, Pagés scored.2–0
- 2Pagés singled to right, Gorman scored on throwing error by first baseman Olson, Pagés to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML STL +180 / ATL -215
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -191
- STL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.5 – 5.0 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +6 | STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +47 Elo | ATL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.520th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–9 | Road vs home | 6–27th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15143rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 152211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 6–6 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.