St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Braves- Eli WhiteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8White homered to left (434 feet), Olson scored and Albies scored.1–4
- 7Harris II singled to right, Allen scored.1–1
- 1Arenado doubled to left, Gorman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML STL +135 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.0%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- STL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −19 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.94 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +42 Elo | ATL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.721st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 7–37th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15122nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 152012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–10 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–2 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 7–7 ATL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.