Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Flores singled to right, Lee scored, Koss to third.11–3
- 7Ramos hit sacrifice fly to center, Villar scored.11–2
- 6Bauers homered to center (413 feet), Frelick scored.11–1
- 6Yelich homered to center (407 feet), Mitchell scored, Turang scored and Chourio scored.9–1
- 6Turang singled to right, Capra scored, Mitchell to third.5–1
- 6Bauers scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Capra to second on wild pitch by Hicks.4–1
- 6Bauers scored on throwing error by catcher Bailey, Capra to second on wild pitch by Hicks.4–1
- 3Fitzgerald singled to right, Villar scored.3–1
- 3Contreras singled to left, Chourio scored and Yelich scored.3–0
- 3Chourio grounded into fielder's choice to second, Durbin scored, Turang out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML MIL +125 / SF -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SF: Elo 48.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- MIL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −10 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +13 Elo | MIL 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 151613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–13 | 14–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 2–6 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–8 SF in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.