Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-3, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soderstrom hit sacrifice fly to left, Butler scored.3–5
- 9Rooker doubled to center, Muncy scored, Butler to third.2–5
- 7Contreras singled to center, Turang scored.1–5
- 7Yelich grounded out to second, Durbin scored, Turang to second.1–4
- 6Urshela grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bleday scored, Andujar out at second.1–3
- 5Yelich singled to right, Turang scored, Chourio to third.0–3
- 3Yelich singled to left, Chourio scored.0–2
- 3Chourio doubled to left, Turang scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 63%
- ML ATH +160 / MIL -190
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 63.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -170
- ATH +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +9 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +94 Elo | MIL 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Road vs home | 7–310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 26th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15277th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–7 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–2 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.
