Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andujar hit sacrifice fly to left, Langeliers scored.12–3
- 9Bleday grounded out to second, Soderstrom scored, Langeliers to third.11–3
- 9Langeliers doubled to left, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to third.10–3
- 6Soderstrom homered to right (423 feet), Butler scored and Rooker scored.9–3
- 6Butler singled to center, Muncy scored.6–3
- 3Langeliers homered to left (409 feet).5–3
- 2Urshela doubled to right, Wilson scored.4–3
- 1Vaughn homered to left (381 feet), Vargas scored and Sosa scored.3–3
- 1Soderstrom homered to right center (388 feet), Butler scored and Rooker scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 59%
- ML ATH -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +12 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +34 Elo | ATH 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.325th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 5th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–525th of 30 |
| 6th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149322nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–7 | 9–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | — |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–6 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.
