Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin singled to left, Robert Jr. scored.2–3
- 6Robert Jr. homered to right center (384 feet), Vargas scored.2–2
- 5González singled to left, Rafaela scored.2–0
- 5Rafaela tripled to center, Narváez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +4 | BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CHW: Martin Perez: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +56 Elo | BOS 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.523rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 3.79th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 17th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 3–425th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149224th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 141030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–9 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–8 CHW in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.