Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4
- Sean NewcombPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baldwin singled to left, Sosa scored.1–11
- 8Sosa doubled to left, Robert Jr. scored.1–10
- 7Narváez singled to left, Baldwin scored and Taylor scored, Meidroth to second.1–9
- 7Sabol hit sacrifice fly to center, Abreu scored.1–7
- 5Narváez hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.0–7
- 4Sosa singled to right, Robert Jr. scored.0–6
- 4Robert Jr. singled to center, Vargas scored.0–5
- 4Vargas doubled to left, Narváez scored and Meidroth scored, Vargas to third.0–4
- 2Amaya doubled to left, Meidroth scored and Taylor scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 59%
- ML BOS -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.4%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −8 | BOS: Sean Newcomb: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +74 Elo | BOS 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 12th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 2–425th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Elo rating | 140630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–7 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 5–9 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–7 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.