Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.1 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
White Sox- Matt ThaissBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Story homered to left center (404 feet).3–1
- 8Thaiss singled to right, Meidroth scored, Baldwin to third.2–1
- 6Story doubled to right, Abreu scored and Bregman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 69%
- ML BOS -250 / CHW +205
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- BOS: Elo 60.7%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -218
- CHW +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.1 – 2.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +76 Elo | BOS 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 64.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.524th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.66th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 4–424th of 30 |
| 24th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301492 | Elo rating | 141230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–9 | 9–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–9 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.