Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Elvin RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ortiz singled to left, Hoskins scored, Frelick to second.9–1
- 5Carpenter homered to center (403 feet).9–0
- 4Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored.8–0
- 4Ibáñez singled to center, Malloy scored, Torres to third.7–0
- 4Torres singled to left, Báez scored and Kreidler scored, Malloy to second.6–0
- 2Torres grounded out to second, McKinstry scored, Malloy to second.4–0
- 2Malloy singled to right, Báez scored, McKinstry to third.3–0
- 1Dingler doubled to center, Ibáñez scored.2–0
- 1Ibáñez doubled to left, Torres scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 60%
- ML DET -165 / MIL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- DET: Elo 48.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 3.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +1 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.81 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tyler Alexander: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +12 Elo | MIL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.16th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–27th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149719th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–5 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–7 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 3–3 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.