Athletics at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting2-3
- Davis MartinPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker homered to left (415 feet), Wilson scored.8–0
- 9Wilson doubled to right, Schuemann scored.6–0
- 7Soderstrom homered to right (374 feet).5–0
- 6Bleday homered to right (372 feet), Rooker scored.4–0
- 5Butler homered to right (414 feet).2–0
- 1Wilson doubled to right, Butler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 55%
- ML ATH -135 / CHW +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATH -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +29 Elo | ATH 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.228th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 4–728th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 148726th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 140630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–7 | 9–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | — |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 9–8 |
| Overs–unders | 10–8 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 9–6 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.
