Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting1-4
- Jack FlahertyPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hoskins reached on infield single to third, Contreras scored, Yelich to second.0–5
- 7Contreras grounded into fielder's choice to first, Chourio scored, Turang out at second.0–4
- 4Ortiz singled to right, Mitchell scored.0–3
- 2Mitchell hit sacrifice fly to left, Frelick scored.0–2
- 2Hoskins homered to center (440 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML DET -110 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 52.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- DET -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.3 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −15 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +18 Elo | MIL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 7th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 5–314th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–5 | 6–11 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–7 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–3 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.