Detroit Tigers at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Frelick homered to center (408 feet).1–5
- 6Torkelson homered to center (395 feet).1–4
- 3Hoskins homered to right center (391 feet), Frelick scored.0–4
- 3Yelich homered to right center (404 feet).0–2
- 2Dunn sacrificed to first, Mitchell scored, Ortiz to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML DET +125 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 52.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +8 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +17 Elo | MIL 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 6–39th of 30 |
| 14th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 10th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15258th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–6 | 7–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–4 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.