Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4
- Chad PatrickPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers homered to center (423 feet).3–1
- 6Rooker homered to center (398 feet).2–1
- 5Andujar doubled to left, Bleday scored, Wilson to third.1–1
- 3Durbin grounded out to shortstop, Mitchell scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML ATH +115 / MIL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- ATH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +7 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +109 Elo | MIL 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 27th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–4 | Road vs home | 8–310th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–8 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–3 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.
