Athletics at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 0 K
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hoskins singled to right, Chourio scored and Yelich scored, Contreras to third.1–14
- 7Turang hit sacrifice fly to left, Haase scored.1–12
- 7Haase singled to center, Frelick scored and Ortiz scored on error, Haase to third.1–11
- 6Contreras singled to left, Turang scored, Yelich to second.1–9
- 5Brown homered to right center (385 feet).1–8
- 4Contreras reached on infield single to shortstop, Yelich scored on throwing error by shortstop Wilson.0–8
- 4Yelich doubled to left, Durbin scored.0–7
- 3Hoskins homered to left (366 feet).0–6
- 2Chourio doubled to right, Turang scored.0–5
- 1Hoskins scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Frelick thrown out at third.0–4
- 1Hoskins scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Frelick thrown out at third.0–4
- 1Contreras scored on a balk, Hoskins to third.0–3
- 1Contreras scored on a balk, Hoskins to third on a balk.0–3
- 1Contreras scored on a balk, Hoskins to third on a balk.0–3
- 1Hoskins singled to left, Yelich scored, Contreras to second.0–2
- 1Turang scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Yelich advanced to third.0–1
- 1Turang scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Yelich stole third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML ATH +105 / MIL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.1 – 4.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −5 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · MIL: Logan Henderson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +57 Elo | MIL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–4 | Road vs home | 8–410th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149722nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301461 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–8 | 9–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 8–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–3 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
