Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bauers grounded out to second, Frelick scored, Collins to second, Hoskins to third.2–3
- 6Yelich singled to center, Chourio scored.1–3
- 5Donovan singled to left, Nootbaar scored, Contreras thrown out at home.0–3
- 5Nootbaar singled to right, Winn scored.0–2
- 4Gorman hit sacrifice fly to right, Donovan scored, Arenado to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML MIL +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- STL: Elo 45.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −6 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–9 | Road vs home | 8–413th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–14 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 7–2 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–15 | 15–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–10 STL in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 26.