Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Mike YastrzemskiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames hit sacrifice fly, Koss scored, Adames to first on fielding error by left fielder Yelich, Yastrzemski to second.5–6
- 8Yastrzemski grounded into fielder's choice to second, Fitzgerald scored, Koss third.5–5
- 5Chapman homered to center (411 feet), Lee scored.5–4
- 4Frelick grounded out to first, Haase scored, Turang to second.5–2
- 4Haase sacrificed to third, Ortiz scored and Capra scored, Haase to first on error by first baseman Wade Jr., Haase to second.4–2
- 3Yastrzemski homered to right (343 feet).2–2
- 2Mitchell scored on Roupp wild pitch.2–1
- 2Mitchell scored on Roupp wild pitch.2–1
- 1Lee doubled to right, Yastrzemski scored.1–1
- 1Yelich sacrificed into double play, center to first, Turang scored, Frelick thrown out at first.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML MIL +135 / SF -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- SF: Elo 52.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -145
- MIL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +10 | MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +15 Elo | SF 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 6–311th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15112nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 151513th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–14 | 15–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–9 SF in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.