Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Arenado homered to left (385 feet).5–6
- 9Chourio homered to left center (395 feet), Collins scored.5–5
- 6Ortiz grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Contreras scored, Bauers out at second, Hoskins to third.3–5
- 5Chourio doubled to left, Turang scored.2–5
- 5Durbin doubled to center, Ortiz scored.1–5
- 4Contreras reached on infield single to second, Nootbaar scored on throwing error by second baseman Turang.0–5
- 4Nootbaar singled to center, Winn scored, Nootbaar to second.0–4
- 3Donovan doubled to left, Nootbaar scored.0–3
- 3Nootbaar hit a ground rule double, Winn scored.0–2
- 2Pagés hit sacrifice fly to center, Gorman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML MIL +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- STL: Elo 50.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- MIL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +6 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +2 Elo | STL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 9–410th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–14 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–7 | 7–3 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–11 STL in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 27.