Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Edwards reached on infield single to pitcher, Lopez scored on throwing error by pitcher Ashcraft.3–4
- 7Lopez singled to center, Norby scored, Lopez to second.3–3
- 6Ramírez doubled to left, Wagaman scored.3–2
- 6Candelario hit sacrifice fly to left, De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 5Friedl doubled to right, Trevino scored.2–1
- 3Marte homered to left (431 feet).1–1
- 1Stowers singled to right, Wagaman scored, Ramírez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −10 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +28 Elo | CIN 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.923rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–722nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15088th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Elo rating | 146226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 11–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–11 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–6 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.