Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Garver scored, Solano safe at first on fielding error by shortstop De La Cruz, Arozarena advanced to third.11–7
- 10Arozarena doubled to left, Mastrobuoni scored and Rodríguez scored, Garver to third.10–7
- 10Crawford reached on infield single to shortstop, Moore scored, Mastrobuoni to second.8–7
- 9Arozarena homered to left (376 feet).7–7
- 9Raleigh homered to right (422 feet).6–7
- 8Fraley homered to right center (365 feet), Lux scored, Candelario scored and Dunn scored.5–7
- 8Crawford doubled to right, Williamson scored, Mastrobuoni to third.5–3
- 7Friedl hit sacrifice fly to right, Dunn scored, Fraley to third.4–3
- 5Solano hit sacrifice fly to right, Polanco scored.4–2
- 5Raleigh singled to left, Rodríguez scored, Polanco to third.3–2
- 4Raley homered to right (398 feet), Arozarena scored.2–2
- 1Hays homered to right center (388 feet), De La Cruz scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML SEA +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −13 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.79th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301–4 | Road vs home | 6–522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 149917th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–9 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 6–2 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–3 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.