Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Trevino singled to right, Encarnacion-Strand scored.5–3
- 7Encarnacion-Strand doubled to left, Steer scored and Lux scored.5–2
- 7Raleigh homered to left (350 feet).5–0
- 5Raleigh homered to right center (412 feet).4–0
- 4Crawford singled to right, Moore scored.3–0
- 2Williamson singled to center, Moore scored.2–0
- 1Arozarena doubled to center, Rodríguez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML SEA -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.4%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +1 | SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.117th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.98th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 28th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 6–416th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15069th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 150117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 11–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–3 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.