Seattle Mariners at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz grounded out to second, Trevino scored, McLain to second, Friedl to third.4–8
- 8McLain walked, Fraley scored, Friedl to second, Trevino to third.4–7
- 5Hays homered to center (404 feet), De La Cruz scored and Lux scored.4–6
- 5Lux singled to left, McLain scored, De La Cruz to second, Lux to second, De La Cruz safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Arozarena.4–3
- 5Moore homered to left (389 feet), Crawford scored.4–2
- 3Hays singled to left, McLain scored, Lux to second.2–2
- 3Lux singled to center, Trevino scored, McLain to third.2–1
- 2Moore singled to left, Williamson scored, Crawford to second.2–0
- 1Moore homered to center (429 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 50%
- ML SEA -110 / CIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -100
- SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +4 Elo | SEA 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.8 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 5–423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–8 | 10–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 4–2 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.