Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hays homered to left (410 feet).5–9
- 8O'Neill singled to center, Henderson scored, O'Hearn to second.4–9
- 8O'Hearn singled to center, Mullins scored, Henderson to third.4–8
- 7Westburg homered to left center (397 feet).4–7
- 7Laureano homered to center (432 feet).4–6
- 6Friedl reached on bunt single to first, Fraley scored, Candelario to third.4–5
- 3Laureano homered to left center (393 feet), O'Neill scored.3–5
- 2Henderson doubled to right, Urías scored.3–3
- 2Friedl doubled to right, Trevino scored.3–2
- 2Fraley homered to right (429 feet).2–2
- 1Henderson homered to center (395 feet).1–2
- 1Mullins homered to right center (393 feet).1–1
- 1Lux singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Hays to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML CIN +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +3 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +14 Elo | BAL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–526th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Elo rating | 151414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–8 | 8–11 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–4 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.