Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Orioles- Heston KjerstadBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kjerstad homered to right center (407 feet), Sánchez scored.8–3
- 6Hays reached on infield single to second, McLain scored on throwing error by second baseman Mateo, Espinal to second.8–1
- 4McLain homered to center (414 feet), Trevino scored and Dunn scored.7–1
- 4Candelario homered to center (415 feet).4–1
- 3De La Cruz homered to center (400 feet), Trevino scored and Espinal scored.3–1
- 2Mullins homered to right (345 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML CIN +140 / BAL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- BAL: Elo 52.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- CIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 5.2 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −11 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +18 Elo | BAL 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Elo rating | 151713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–8 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–4 BAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.