Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 14 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lux homered to center (397 feet), Hays scored.3–6
- 8Hays grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McLain scored, De La Cruz out at second.1–6
- 7Stowers homered to left (363 feet), Norby scored and Lopez scored.0–6
- 5Wagaman homered to center (407 feet).0–3
- 2Simon singled to center, Ramírez scored, J. Sánchez to third.0–2
- 2J. Sánchez singled to center, Lopez scored, Ramírez to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -120 / MIA +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +5 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +18 Elo | CIN 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 6th of 305–5 | Road vs home | 6–724th of 30 |
| 7th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15088th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 145926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–9 | 10–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 14–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–5 MIA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.