Cincinnati Reds at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting5-7, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody PoteetPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wynns homered to left center (403 feet), Dunn scored and Marte scored.24–2
- 9Marte doubled to left, Steer scored, Dunn to third.21–2
- 8Rutschman homered to right (404 feet).20–2
- 8Marte homered to left (366 feet), Hays scored, Lux scored and Dunn scored.20–1
- 8Dunn hit by pitch, McLain scored, Lux to second, Hays to third.16–1
- 7Marte singled to right, Steer scored, Dunn to second.15–1
- 7Dunn singled to right, Lux scored, Steer to third.14–1
- 7Steer doubled to center, Hays scored, Lux to third.13–1
- 5Lux singled to right, Hays scored.12–1
- 5Hays doubled to center, McLain scored.11–1
- 4Wynns singled to center, Marte scored.10–1
- 4Marte doubled to right, Lux scored.9–1
- 3McLain singled to center, Friedl scored.8–1
- 3Friedl tripled to right, Wynns scored.7–1
- 3Wynns singled to center, Fraley scored.6–1
- 3Steer scored, Fraley to second on pickoff error by pitcher Morton.5–1
- 3Steer scored, Fraley to second on pickoff error by pitcher Morton.5–1
- 3Fraley singled to right, Hays scored and Lux scored, Steer to third.4–1
- 3De La Cruz homered to right center (389 feet).2–1
- 2Westburg scored, Urías safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Marte.1–1
- 2Wynns singled to left, Fraley scored, Marte to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 64%
- ML CIN +170 / BAL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 53.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -181
- CIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −6 | CIN: Brent Suter: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +25 Elo | BAL 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 5–522nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 151613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–9 | 9–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11 | 14–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 3–5 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.