Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin WynnsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Matt MervisBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wynns doubled to left, Steer scored.5–2
- 8Candelario grounded into fielder's choice to second, De La Cruz scored, Marte to second.4–2
- 5Steer singled to center, Fraley scored.3–2
- 3Wynns homered to left (385 feet).2–2
- 1Mervis homered to right center (384 feet), Wagaman scored.1–2
- 1Lux singled to right, Friedl scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / MIA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 47.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- MIA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.2 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +10 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 1.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +15 Elo | MIA 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–7 | Road vs home | 8–722nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Elo rating | 146326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–10 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–12 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–7 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.