Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte reached on infield single to third, Hays scored.8–1
- 8Beck hit sacrifice fly to center, Trejo scored.7–1
- 5Marte doubled to center, Hays scored.7–0
- 5Hays singled to center, Steer scored.6–0
- 5De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to center, Friedl scored.5–0
- 5Trevino scored on a balk, Steer to second on a balk, Friedl to third on a balk.4–0
- 5Trevino scored on a balk, Steer to second on a balk, Friedl to third on a balk.4–0
- 1Marte singled to right, Lux scored.3–0
- 1Lux doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 1Hays grounded out to second, Steer scored, De La Cruz to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 58%
- ML CIN -155 / COL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.7%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 6.1 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +4 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +61 Elo | CIN 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 3–830th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 30 |
| 16th of 301503 | Elo rating | 141729th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 11–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 9–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14 | 10–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 12–3 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 15.