Colorado Rockies at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- German MarquezPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Royals- Kyle IsbelBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Isbel reached on bunt single to first, Tolbert scored, Waters to second.4–7
- 5Isbel reached on infield single to first, Biggio scored and Perez scored, Waters to third.4–6
- 3Waters singled to center, Massey scored, Renfroe to second.4–4
- 3Massey singled to right, Perez scored.4–3
- 3Goodman homered to left (361 feet), McMahon scored.4–2
- 2Beck homered to left (419 feet).2–2
- 1Perez doubled to left, Witt Jr. scored and Garcia scored.1–2
- 1Goodman singled to left, Doyle scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- KC 72%
- ML COL +240 / KC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- KC: Elo 63.5%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- KC -255
- COL +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.7 – 4.8 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1422 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +3 | COL: German Marquez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +96 Elo | KC 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 68.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.98th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–12 | Road vs home | 7–414th of 30 |
| 4th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 15105th of 30 |
| 29th of 301422 | Elo rating | 149221st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–13 | 8–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 4–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–14 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–3 KC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.