Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Freddy FerminBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Casey MizePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Fermin homered to left center (391 feet).1–3
- 5Torkelson homered to left center (375 feet), Báez scored and Carpenter scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML KC +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- DET: Elo 56.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +47 Elo | DET 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–9 | Road vs home | 7–12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–14 | 13–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–13 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–18 DET in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.