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Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast

FinalPrime Video, FanDuel SN KC, MLB.TV, FanDuel Sports KC

Away

Royals

8-11

3–4

at

Home

Yankees

11-7

KC 42%NYY 58%

You didn't pick this one.

Yankee Stadium · Prime Video, FanDuel SN KC, MLB.TV, FanDuel Sports KC

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.

NYY75%50%75%KCStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Royals
  • Salvador PerezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
  • Kris BubicPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Yankees
  • Aaron JudgeBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Clarke SchmidtPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Judge homered to center (383 feet).3–4
  • 5India grounded out to shortstop, Isbel scored.3–3
  • 5Isbel tripled to center, Waters scored.2–3
  • 4Bellinger doubled to second, Peraza scored, Goldschmidt to third.1–3
  • 3Volpe doubled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored and Judge scored.1–2
  • 1Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Yankees 58%

LeanHit
KC 42%NYY 58%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
NYY 58%
ML KC +130 / NYY -155
Pre-line forecast
NYY 61%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYY 60%
Ratings vs. market
+1.5 pts
NYY: Elo 59.8%, market 58.3%
Fair odds
NYY -140
KC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
KC 3.4 – 4.1 NYY
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorKCNYYWhy
Team rating14961535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−3+9KC: Kris Bubic: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYY +69 EloNYY 59.8%
Market-implied ratingsNYY 60.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastNYY 60.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYY 58.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Kansas City Royals and New York Yankees compared, with each team's league rank
KCStatNYY
29th of 303.1Runs scored6.11st of 30
6th of 303.8Runs allowed4.723rd of 30
22nd of 30−0.7Margin+1.44th of 30
11th of 305–5Last 105–511th of 30
22nd of 302–6Road vs home7–414th of 30
5th of 301511Opponent Elo15116th of 30
20th of 301496Elo rating15353rd of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

RoyalsYankees
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonKCNYY
Run line6–129–8
Last 103–74–6
Favorite4–79–6
Underdog2–50–2
Overs–unders7–1111–6
Overs–unders, last 102–86–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

KC 5–14 NYY in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.