Kansas City Royals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Wells homered to right (361 feet).1–4
- 5Rice homered to right center (381 feet).1–3
- 5Grisham homered to right center (384 feet).1–2
- 4Chisholm Jr. homered to center (411 feet).1–1
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left center (388 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML KC +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −8 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +41 Elo | NYY 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 6.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.124th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 302–4 | Road vs home | 5–422nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–10 | 7–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 7–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 7–9 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 5–12 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.
- Oct 10NYY 3 @ KC 1PlayoffsPicked NYY 58%Hit
- Oct 9NYY 3 @ KC 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 7KC 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 5KC 5 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 64%Hit
- Sep 11KC 3 @ NYY 4Picked NYY 57%Hit
- Sep 10KC 5 @ NYY 0Picked NYY 57%Miss
- Sep 9KC 4 @ NYY 10Picked NYY 62%Hit
- Jun 13NYY 3 @ KC 4Picked NYY 61%Miss