Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jackson JobePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Massey walked, Pasquantino scored, Garcia to second, Perez to third.3–7
- 9Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.2–7
- 7Torkelson doubled to left, Sweeney scored and Greene scored.1–7
- 5Torkelson grounded into double play, third to second to first, Greene scored, Sweeney out at second.1–5
- 5Sweeney singled to right, Torres scored, Greene to third.1–4
- 5Greene singled to right, Malloy scored, Torres to third.1–3
- 4Ibáñez homered to left center (396 feet).1–2
- 2Nido singled to left, Torkelson scored.1–1
- 1Pasquantino doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 57%
- ML KC -150 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- KC: Elo 44.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jackson Jobe: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +1.07th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Road vs home | 6–13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301493 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–13 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–13 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–17 DET in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 27.