Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Michael MasseyBatting3-4
- Michael LorenzenPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Torkelson singled to center, Kreidler scored, McKinstry to third.1–6
- 8McKinstry grounded into fielder's choice to second, Sweeney scored, Torres out at second, Kreidler to third.1–5
- 8Garcia singled to center, Perez scored, Massey to second.1–4
- 5Greene singled to right, Carpenter scored, Torkelson to third.0–4
- 3Greene singled to center, Torkelson scored.0–3
- 3Torkelson doubled to left, McKinstry scored and Carpenter scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML KC +135 / DET -160
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- DET: Elo 54.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −7 | KC: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +34 Elo | DET 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 151614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–12 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 7–12 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–16 DET in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.