Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Trey LipscombBatting2-4
- Jake IrvinPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Rockies- Zac VeenBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Angel ChivilliPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 6Fulford homered to left (433 feet).3–2
- 3Veen homered to right (412 feet).3–1
- 2Nuñez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Adams out at home. Young and Lipscomb scored on throwing error by catcher Fulford, Nuñez to third.3–0
- 2Crews scored on throwing error by catcher Fulford, Adams safe at second.1–0
- 2Crews scored on throwing error by catcher Fulford, Adams safe at second on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- COL 52%
- ML WSH +100 / COL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.4 pts
- COL: Elo 45.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- COL -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.2 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −5 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +29 Elo | WSH 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | COL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 6.130th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.0 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–8 | Road vs home | 2–529th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15172nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301465 | Elo rating | 142229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–10 | 7–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–8 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 9–5 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.