Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dylan CrewsBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 13 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moniak tripled to right, Goodman scored.12–11
- 7Beck tripled to left, Goodman scored, Stallings scored and Moniak scored.12–10
- 7Moniak walked, McMahon scored, Stallings to second, Goodman to third.12–7
- 7Toglia hit sacrifice fly to right, Amador scored.12–6
- 7Goodman walked, Bouchard scored, McMahon to second, Amador to third.12–5
- 7Bouchard tripled to left, Moniak scored and Beck scored.12–4
- 7Wood singled to left, Tena scored, Nuñez to second.12–2
- 7Tena singled to left, García Jr. scored and Crews scored, Tena to second.11–2
- 5Crews homered to right center (428 feet), García Jr. scored.9–2
- 4Wood homered to left center (426 feet), Crews scored and Tena scored.7–2
- 4Tena grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, García Jr. scored, Crews to second.4–2
- 4Bell homered to left (370 feet).3–2
- 2Moniak homered to center (429 feet), Stallings scored.2–2
- 2Crews homered to right center (407 feet), García Jr. scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 57%
- ML WSH -145 / COL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- WSH: Elo 50.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- WSH -130
- COL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1423 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +8 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Chase Dollander: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 2.929th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −2.830th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 302–8 | Road vs home | 2–428th of 30 |
| 12th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15202nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301464 | Elo rating | 142329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–9 | 6–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 11–8 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 8–5 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.