Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Mark CanhaBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Witt Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Waters scored.4–3
- 8Canha singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.3–3
- 7McKinstry singled to left, Torres scored, Carpenter to second.2–3
- 5McKinstry singled to center, Sweeney scored, Carpenter to second.2–2
- 5Carpenter singled to right, Keith scored, Sweeney to third.2–1
- 2Waters singled to center, Renfroe scored, Pasquantino to second.2–0
- 2Pasquantino singled to center, Garcia scored, Renfroe to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- DET 66%
- ML KC +185 / DET -225
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- DET: Elo 60.3%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -197
- KC +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 2.5 – 4.0 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +16 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +73 Elo | DET 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 302.9 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.43rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +1.27th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 302–10 | Road vs home | 8–12nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 152212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–15 | 14–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 8–14 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 10–19 DET in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.