Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Brad LordPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martini grounded out to second, Beck scored, Fulford to third.1–3
- 4Moniak tripled to left, Stallings scored and Schunk scored.1–2
- 1Lowe singled to left, Wood scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- WSH 52%
- ML WSH -120 / COL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- WSH: Elo 55.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -109
- COL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 5.8 – 5.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −15 | WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +37 Elo | WSH 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | −2.730th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–8 | Road vs home | 2–629th of 30 |
| 21st of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301466 | Elo rating | 142129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 7–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 6–10 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 10–5 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.