Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Beck homered to left (437 feet).8–7
- 7Friedl grounded out to first, Espinal scored, Dunn to second, Wynns to third.8–6
- 7Dunn walked, Steer scored, Wynns to second, Espinal to third.7–6
- 5Doyle hit sacrifice fly to center, Stallings scored.6–6
- 5Toglia singled to left, Goodman scored, Stallings to third.6–5
- 5Dunn singled to left, Marte scored, Espinal to second.6–4
- 5Espinal reached on infield single to shortstop, Hays scored, Marte to third.5–4
- 3Toglia hit a ground rule double, Bouchard scored and Goodman scored, Moniak to third.4–4
- 3Beck homered to left (404 feet).4–2
- 3Steer homered to left (383 feet), Hays scored.4–1
- 3Marte grounded out to first, De La Cruz scored, Hays to third.2–1
- 2Amador walked, Goodman scored, Toglia to second, Stallings to third.1–1
- 1Marte singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Hays to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML CIN -145 / COL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 60.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- COL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | 0 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +72 Elo | CIN 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 3–628th of 30 |
| 14th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Elo rating | 141929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–10 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders | 12–13 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 10–3 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 13.