Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Adael AmadorBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Amador doubled to center, Martini scored.6–4
- 9Steer reached on infield single to third, Friedl scored, Hays to second, De La Cruz to third.6–3
- 9De La Cruz singled to right, Trevino scored, Friedl to third.5–3
- 6Hays homered to center (429 feet).4–3
- 5Amador homered to right (378 feet).3–3
- 4Hays homered to left (406 feet).3–2
- 2Toglia homered to center (457 feet), Goodman scored.2–2
- 2Marte homered to left center (433 feet), Lux scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 65%
- ML CIN -210 / COL +175
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 61.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.9 – 4.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −5 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +83 Elo | CIN 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.830th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 3–730th of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 141829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–11 | 10–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–7 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 11–4 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 11–3 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 14.