St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Winn homered to left (388 feet).6–0
- 9Nootbaar homered to right center (392 feet).5–0
- 9Scott II homered to right center (396 feet), Contreras scored and Pozo scored.4–0
- 1Winn homered to left (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML STL +125 / CIN -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CIN -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.4 – 5.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −17 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +33 Elo | CIN 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.54th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 29th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 7–622nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301491 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–5 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 13–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–14 CIN in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 27.