San Diego Padres at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-4
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2Bogaerts doubled to left, Arraez scored on error and Lockridge scored on error, Bogaerts safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Triolo.4–0
- 2Díaz homered to left (380 feet).2–0
- 1Bogaerts singled to left, Machado scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML SD -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 42.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | SD: Stephen Kolek (no track record yet) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +54 Elo | SD 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 7–1128th of 30 |
| 12th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301546 | Elo rating | 146225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–12 | 11–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–7 | 3–11 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 9–5 PIT in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.