Tampa Bay Rays at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Taylor WallsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jose IglesiasBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Simpson singled to left, Jankowski scored, Simpson to second.4–2
- 5Simpson scored on Vásquez wild pitch, B. Lowe to second on wild pitch by Vásquez.3–2
- 5Simpson scored on Vásquez wild pitch, B. Lowe to second on wild pitch by Vásquez.3–2
- 3Machado hit sacrifice fly to right, Tatis Jr. scored.2–2
- 3B. Lowe singled to center, Simpson scored.2–1
- 3Walls homered to right center (386 feet).1–1
- 2Iglesias singled to right, Bogaerts scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML TB -115 / SD -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- TB: Elo 41.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +58 Elo | SD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 8th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 2.91st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.97th of 30 |
| 17th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 12–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 16th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–14 | 16–11 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–10 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 7–5 |
| Overs–unders | 11–16 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–4 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.