San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GillaspiePitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5González singled to right, Machado scored, González out at second on runner's fielder's choice, Joe to third.4–6
- 5Sheets homered to left center (372 feet).3–6
- 3Torres singled to center, Jung scored and Sweeney scored, Nido to second.2–6
- 2Greene singled to right, Nido scored, McKinstry to third.2–4
- 2Nido singled to center, Báez scored.2–3
- 2Tatis Jr. grounded out to third, Iglesias scored.2–2
- 1Keith singled to right, McKinstry scored.1–2
- 1McKinstry tripled to right, Torres scored.1–1
- 1Ornelas grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Tatis Jr. scored, Bogaerts out at second, Machado to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML SD +120 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- DET: Elo 49.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- SD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +10 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +3 Elo | SD 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 3.53rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.17th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 11th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 8–25th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 152012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–7 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 4–2 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.