San Diego Padres at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting2-4
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. homered to center (427 feet).3–2
- 5Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to right, Smith scored.2–2
- 5Dubón singled to center, Meyers scored, Smith to second.2–1
- 3Sheets singled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 1Bogaerts grounded into fielder's choice to second, Tatis Jr. scored on throwing error by second baseman Dubón, Machado out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML SD -105 / HOU -115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.7 – 3.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +10 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +12 Elo | HOU 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 3.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.6 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 303–5 | Road vs home | 6–521st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301548 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–7 | 10–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–12 | 8–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–5 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.