San Diego Padres at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Paredes reached on infield single to second, Caratini scored, Smith to third.2–3
- 6Walker homered to left (372 feet), Paredes scored.2–2
- 5Machado doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.2–0
- 3Tatis Jr. homered to left (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML SD -120 / HOU +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SD: Elo 54.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 3.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −9 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +32 Elo | SD 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.9 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.7 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 13th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 5–521st of 30 |
| 18th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301549 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–6 | 9–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–3 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–4 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.