San Diego Padres at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HartPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Meyers singled to left, Peña scored.4–6
- 7Arraez homered to right (352 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.4–5
- 4Smith homered to left center (361 feet).2–5
- 4González singled to right, Bogaerts scored.2–4
- 3Diaz singled to left, Walker scored.1–4
- 2Smith homered to left center (403 feet), Diaz scored and Meyers scored.1–3
- 2Wade grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Sheets scored, Iglesias out at second, González to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML SD +145 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 46.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -156
- SD +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | SD: Kyle Hart: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +22 Elo | SD 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.9 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 6th of 303–3 | Road vs home | 4–525th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301551 | Elo rating | 152010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–5 | 8–10 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–3 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 3–3 HOU in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.